Latest News on Section Steel Market in January 2026: Supply and Demand Remain Weak, Prices Expected to Fluctuate with Downward Bias

Supply Side: Steel mills are actively reducing production due to profit losses, with carbon emission trading increasing costs (estimated carbon tax cost of about 173 yuan per ton for long-process steel) and further tightening of capacity replacement policies jointly constraining supply release. Tangshan steel billets are losing about 100 yuan per ton, and with widespread losses among steel mills, production willingness is insufficient, mainly focused on inventory consumption.

Demand Side: Affected by the traditional off-season, downstream steel structure industry performance remains weak. In December, raw material inventories and daily consumption in the steel structure industry both fell by about 0.68% month-on-month, reflecting pessimistic corporate expectations and slowing construction progress. Terminal procurement maintains rigid demand, but demand recovery momentum is insufficient due to low temperatures and delayed capital availability. Steel demand from real estate is expected to continue declining, though the decline may narrow, gradually reducing its drag on overall demand.

On the raw material front, the coke market has experienced three rounds of price reductions, with secondary metallurgical coke prices in Tangshan at 1,380 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan per ton from the end of last month. Iron ore prices fluctuated, with 66% grade dry-based iron concentrate prices in Tangshan at 980 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan per ton from the end of last month. Cost support has loosened, but carbon emission costs and potential "anti-internal competition" industrial policies are shoring up the bottom range of section steel prices from both policy and cost perspectives.

On the policy front, the new steel export license policy implemented on January 1, 2026, includes 300 customs commodity codes for steel products in the export license management catalog, marking China's steel export transition from an extensive "quantity-based" era to a new stage of "quality breakthrough" centered on quality and efficiency.

Overall, China's section steel market in January 2026 is expected to show characteristics of "declining supply and demand, bottom consolidation, range fluctuations, and moderate upward movement." Supply declines may exceed demand declines, helping market rebalancing. Section steel prices are expected to fluctuate with a downward bias, but the downside space is limited, with overall range fluctuations expected. The market needs to pay attention to steel mill production cuts, the impact of extreme weather on logistics, and whether new short-term stimulus policies will be released at the macro level.