Steel Industry News: Hot Rolled Coil Market Dynamics and Policy Guidance

China's steel exports performed strongly in November 2025, reaching 9.98 million tons, up 7.6% year-on-year. Cumulative exports for the first 11 months reached 107.72 million tons, up 6.7%. Imports in November were 496,000 tons, up 4.9% year-on-year; cumulative imports for the first 11 months were 5.54 million tons, down 10.5% year-on-year.

In terms of price advantage, as of December 8, China's hot rolled coil export price (FOB) was $450/ton, still lower than major exporting countries including India, Turkey, and Japan. India's hot coil export price was $507/ton, Turkey's was $540/ton, and Japan's was $506/ton, giving Chinese products a clear price advantage.

In September 2025, five ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Natural Resources jointly issued the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)", setting a target of average annual growth of about 4% for the steel industry's added value. The plan centers on "steady growth and preventing internal competition", focusing on "controlling total volume, optimizing supply, expanding demand, and promoting transformation" through five major pathways and 10 specific measures.

From January 1, 2026, China will implement export license management for some steel products. According to the joint announcement by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs, steel products listed in the management catalog will require export licenses based on foreign trade sales contracts and product quality inspection certificates issued by manufacturers. This policy aims to curb blind exports of low-end, high-energy-consuming steel products and guide enterprises toward high-tech, high-value-added products.

In December 2025, Baosteel's first million-ton near-zero carbon steel production line was fully commissioned at Zhanjiang Steel. The project utilizes China Baowu's pioneering hydrogen metallurgy electric smelting process (HyRESP) technology, achieving full-chain integration of short-process production of zero-carbon high-grade steel plates. Compared with traditional "blast furnace + converter" long-process production of the same scale, the project is expected to reduce carbon emissions by 50-80%, with maximum annual CO2 emission reductions exceeding 3.14 million tons.

Baotou Steel also successfully developed and achieved mass production of low-temperature pipeline steel, with products capable of withstanding extreme low-temperature environments of -35°C drop weight and -30°C impact performance, laying a solid foundation for expanding the pipeline steel market in cold regions.

Since 2025, China's steel exports have faced severe trade protectionism challenges. On October 24, Australia launched "double anti" investigations into flat-rolled steel products imported from China; on October 27, Thailand initiated anti-circumvention investigations into hot-dip galvanized cold-rolled steel coilsoriginating from China; on the same day, Vietnam launched anti-circumvention investigations into hot rolled coils originating from China; on November 25, Australia launched anti-dumping investigations into welded wire mesh sheets imported from China and Malaysia.

On October 7, the European Commission announced new measures for steel product imports, limiting duty-free foreign steel imports to the EU to 18.3 million tons annually, a 47% reduction compared to 2024 steel quotas; imposing a 50% tariff on all steel imports exceeding quotas, up from the previous 25%.

Looking ahead to 2026, with multiple supports including continued steady growth policies, deepening industry consolidation, and accelerating transformation momentum, the steel industry is expected to gradually emerge from the adjustment period and move toward a new stage of high-quality development. Policies will continue to focus on supply-demand balance and structural optimization, while enterprises will seek new opportunities in high-end, green, and digital transformation. The scale effects and synergistic value brought by industry consolidation will further enhance the global competitiveness of China's steel industry.