Steel Rebar and Wire Rod Market Volatility Intensifies: Price Trend Analysis Amid Supply-Demand Game

Supply Side: Output Declines Month-over-Month, But Overall Remains High

According to the latest industry data, the ten-day output of rebarand Wire Rod from key steel enterprises has seen a slight decrease. This is partly due to routine maintenance at some mills and also reflects some dampening of production enthusiasm as profit margins narrow at current price levels. However, it is noteworthy that the national average daily crude steel output remains relatively high, indicating ample elasticity on the supply side. Regarding major raw materials, iron ore prices have stabilized recently after significant declines earlier, while coke prices have strengthened due to factors like environmental production restrictions. This "seesaw" effect of raw material costs makes mills more cautious in setting ex-factory prices forrebar, generally adopting a strategy of "small, frequent adjustments" to test market acceptance and attempt to stabilize profit margins.

Demand Side: Property Market Downturn Drags, Infrastructure Demand Provides Limited Support

The core contradiction on the demand side for rebar remains prominent. The real estate sector, the main consumer, continues in a deep adjustment phase. The issue of a significant year-on-year decline in the area of new construction starts has not been fundamentally reversed, directly suppressing procurement demand for rebar from construction sites. Although some major cities have recently introduced measures like optimized home-purchase policies, the transmission of their effects to physical steel demand takes time, and market confidence is recovering slowly.

In contrast, the infrastructure construction sector has shown some resilience. Driven by the national policy orientation of "stabilizing growth," funding allocation and construction progress for some major projects, particularly in transportation and water conservancy, have accelerated, providing partial support for Rebar demand. However, whether this growth in infrastructure demand can fully offset the gap caused by the property slump remains the biggest uncertainty in the market. Furthermore, purchasing behavior from market traders and end-users has become more short-term, with "buying as needed" becoming the mainstream and large-scale stockpiling becoming rare, exacerbating intraday price volatility.

Market Outlook: Short-Term Fluctuations, Awaiting Policy Effects

In summary, a unilateral trend in the rebar market is unlikely in the short term. Prices are expected to continue fluctuating within the current range over the next one to two months, with limited upside or downside space. On the supply side, steel mills will flexibly adjust production based on profitability and orders. On the demand side, signals of stabilization in the property market will be a key point of observation.

In the long term, China's total steel consumption has entered a plateau phase, where structural changes are more important. The demand peak for traditional construction steels like Rebar has passed. The healthy development of the future market will depend more on the deepening of supply-side structural reforms—namely, continuously promoting capacity control, green and low-carbon transformation, and product mix optimization. For market participants, accurately gauging supply-demand rhythms amidst volatility and using tools like futures to manage price risks becomes crucial.

Industry experts point out that the current market volatility is a normal phenomenon during the supply-demand rebalancing process. As the effects of macro policies further materialize and the property market gradually bottoms out, The Rebar market is expected to find a new, healthier equilibrium in the future.