The steel coil industry in China in 2025 Market Performance: Weak Supply and Demand Continue, Prices Fluctuate at Low Levels

Export Performance: Counter-trend Growth Hits Record Highs

Against the backdrop of "weak domestic demand and strong exports," China's steel exports performed strongly in 2025. According to customs data, from January to November 2025, China exported a cumulative total of 107.7 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%. In November alone, exports reached 9.98 million tons, turning positive year-on-year with a growth rate of 7.6%. Based on data from the first 11 months and the export trend in the fourth quarter, the industry generally expects full-year steel exports to exceed 117 million tons, slightly higher than the 110 million tons in 2024, setting a new record for the past decade.

The export structure underwent significant changes. Due to high tariffs on finished steel products, steel billets, as semi-finished products, rapidly became the main export item, benefiting from low or even zero tariffs under agreements such as RCEP. From January to September 2025, steel billet exports reached 10.73 million tons, a surge of 215% year-on-year, accounting for about 70% of the increase in steel exports. Countries such as Indonesia, the Philippines, and Saudi Arabia imported large quantities of Chinese steel billets for local rolling and processing, meeting their own infrastructure needs while cleverly avoiding trade barriers.

Policy Environment: Resumption of Export License Management

In December 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs jointly issued an announcement, deciding to include some steel products in the "Export License Management Goods Catalog" starting from January 1, 2026. This marks the resumption of steel export license management after 16 years since its cancellation in 2009, signaling that China's steel industry is officially moving away from the extensive era of "winning by quantity" and entering a new stage of "quality breakthrough" centered on quality and efficiency.

The new export license management policy covers 268 steel products under customs commodity codes, including pig iron, steel billets, hot-rolled coils, cold-rolled coils, coated sheets, H-beams, seamless steel pipes, and other products across the entire industry chain. The core requirement of the policy is that export enterprises must apply for export licenses based on export contracts and product quality inspection certificates, using quality certification as a prerequisite to force companies to focus on improving product quality.

Corporate Dynamics: Leading Enterprises Drive Transformation

Facing market challenges, steel companies actively adjusted their strategies. Baowu Group's global market share of high-end automotive steel exceeded 15%, and Ansteel Group's third zinc-aluminum-magnesium coating production line, built with an investment of 4.5 billion yuan, is scheduled to start production in 2026. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's Tangshan Steel Company achieved a high-end product ratio of 82%, with new products contributing over 35%, and its high-end product exports increased by 23% year-on-year. Shougang Group's MCCR production line can produce Steel coils from molten steel in just 25 minutes, with products as thin as 0.7 millimeters, achieving world-leading technical levels.

Green Transformation: Accelerated Low-Carbon Development

Green and low-carbon development has become an industry consensus. By June 2025, China had completed ultra-low emission transformation for 598 million tons of steel production capacity, with full-process ultra-low emission transformation announced. It is expected that by the end of the year, 80% of production capacity will be covered, with the industry investing over 300 billion yuan. This standard is currently the world's most stringent pollutant emission standard. In terms of carbon reduction, Shougang Jingtang's 5,500 cubic meter blast furnace hydrogen-rich smelting project achieved a carbon reduction of 21%, and Hebei Iron and Steel Digital's self-developed WesCarber carbon neutrality digital platform integrates energy, carbon, and AI.

Future Outlook: Structural Optimization and Quality Improvement

Looking ahead to 2026, China's steel exports will enter a new stage of transformation characterized by "stable total volume and improved structure." At the policy level, efforts will focus on guiding high-value-added products such as coated sheets, electrical steel, and coated plates to expand into international markets, while promoting companies to accelerate overseas production capacity layout and effectively respond to trade protectionism challenges through localized production models. As domestic R&D capabilities for high-end special steel continue to break through and downstream industry upgrade demands deepen, import volumes are expected to continue contracting.